Next Year in Cleveland 2024 MLB Mock Draft 1.0
Round 1
Picks made by Justin Lada (JL), Jared Sziber (JS), and Willie Hood (WH)
CLEVELAND GUARDIANS: 1B, Nick Kurtz, Wake Forest
JL: Taking a first baseman #1 overall comes with risks, and the history of that decision carries many examples of failure. That being said, Kurtz appears to be a safe enough of a hitter based on solid contact rates, and chase rates low enough to rival or beat other hitters in the 1.1 conversion such as JJ Weatherholt and Travis Bazzana. Cleveland is in obvious need of power and has seen its penchant for taking bigger swings and risks in player acquisition increase lately. New scouting director Ethan Purser signed high-risk, high-reward Daniel Espino in 2018 as Cleveland’s top pick in that draft. If that strategy remains here in 2024 at 1.1, then Kurtz makes sense, though Bazanna also has the tools and makeup to make an even better argument for a safer, yet high-upside pick at 1.1.
JS: Risky? Yes. Super fun? Absolutely! It is fun to dream of what Kurtz can be at the pro level. He offers above-average hit tools, as well as massive power. The past has not been kind to first basemen who are taken in the first round of the draft, but the potential to be an All-Star, middle-of-the-order bat could be too hard to pass on. To go along with the advanced hitting skills, Kurtz is an above-average defender at first base, with the potential to play Gold Glove-level defense in the Bigs. Cleveland has been more inclined to take some chances on riskier level players than in the past, and Kurtz fits that bill. Others to watch: JJ Wetherholt, Travis Bazzana, Konnor Griffin, and Chase Burns.
WH: This class will ultimately be defined by what player(s) emerge at the top. Thinking back to last year, Paul Skenes emerged as the first overall selection but was projected as a mid-to-late first-round pick before the season. There are arguably three top-tier talents at the top of the class but there are a handful of others that could make a run at the first overall selection in the draft class. All that said, this is a unique opportunity for Cleveland to potentially grab a talented face of the franchise-type player. Players to watch: Kurtz, Wetherholt, Bazzana, Burns, Caglianone, and Griffin.
Cincinnati Reds: 2B, JJ Wetherholt, West Virginia University
JS: Wetherholt can do a little bit of everything at a very high level. Power, speed, and hitting all are above average. A second baseman in the past, look for Wetherholt to see time at short this spring, which could help his value.
Colorado Rockies 2B, Travis Bazzana, Oregon State
WH: Getting perhaps the best player in the draft class here is a great value for the Rockies. The 2023 Cape Cod League MVP has instincts, speed, defense, and power potential.
Oakland Athletic: P/OF Jac Caglianone, Florida
JL: Whenever the Athletics play, or whatever they’re going to be called, may want to make a splash with a potential big name. They could bank on having their own homegrown two-way star…for four or five years anyway.
Chicago White Sox: RHP Chase Burns, Wake Forest
JS: The Tennessee transfer has long been considered a first-round talent. With a power fastball and a devastating slider, Burns could see himself going higher than we have him here if he has a great spring.
Kansas City Royals: OF, Charlie Condon, Georgia
WH: Two years ago the Royals grabbed slugging outfielder Gavin Cross. In this mock, the University of Georgia product falls to the Royals giving them two potential middle-of-the-order type thumpers. Condon makes good contact (55) for someone his size (6’6) and has plus power.
St. Louis Cardinals: SS, Seaver King, Wake Forest
JL: The Cards have gone in the college direction here the last few years, and there’s an argument for them here to go for another college arm, possibly Josh Hartle or Hagen Smith. But Seaver King has a lot of helium coming into 2024, could offer a lot of versatility, and could even push himself further up the board here. Smith feels too good of a talent to pass here if he acclimates himself to the ACC the way everyone thinks he will.
Los Angeles Angels: P Josh Hartle, Wake Forest
JS: Hartle may have the best slider in this class. He has a great track record at Wake and should continue to do so this spring. A tall, long, funky delivery, Hartle repeats his delivery well and has 3 above-average pitches.
Pittsburgh Pirates: TWP Konnor Griffin, Jackson Prep (MS)
WH: Perhaps the most talented player in this draft class lands here as a two-way player. Griffin is a gifted athlete who's played shortstop and centerfield. He's a legitimate pitching prospect albeit likely outside the first round if he chose just that path. There are tools all around but his bat lags. The Mississippi native projects best as an outfielder long-term but could start his pro career working on both sides of the baseball.
Washington Nationals: RHP Brody Brecht, Iowa
JL: There have been some changes in the Nationals front office brass recently, but Brecht sort of fits into the same mold of guys like Cade Cavalli and Jackson Rutledge as a big-bodied, big-armed, athletic pitcher. Bats like Vance Honeycutt, Tommy White, and even Mike Sirota could fit here and the Nationals do like athletes, so if Braden Montgomery has a big year, he could be a big fit here.
Detroit Tigers: OF Mike Sirota, Northeastern
JL: The Tigers are building a really nice organizational roster and have taken every type of player archetype in recent years, so it feels hard to peg down. Even though Sirota is from a smaller conference, he could be a 5 tool centerfielder who could move through the system quickly to fit into the Tigers emerging core, which could make him enticing here.
Boston Red Sox: OF Braden Montgomery, Texas A&M
JS: A Stanford transfer, Montgomery has a great track record of hitting as well as pitching at a high level. A great athlete, Montgomery has average to above-average tools across the board. If he continues this success now in the SEC, he could hear his name taken well before 12.
San Francisco Giants: P, Hagen Smith, University of Arkansas
JS: Fall reports have Smith popping 100 mph, if he can continue this trend in the spring, Smith could be a steal here. To go with his heater, Smith offers a power slider which is his best pitch. He throws a splitter that has shown signs of being an average secondary offering.
Chicago Cubs: OF, Vance Honeycutt, North Carolina
WH: Considered one of the top talents in this draft class the Tar Heels outfielder is an enigma of sorts. He flashes all the tools necessary to be a star but has yet to hit above .300. The Cubbies have grabbed college bats in recent memory Honeycutt would fit both value and college bat.
Seattle Mariners: OF, PJ Morlando, HS SC
WH: Perhaps the best combination of hit tool and power in the prep class. Morlando could go in the early teens or work his way into the top ten selections. The South Carolina native can handle right field or first base.
Miami Marlins: INF Tommy White, LSU
JL: The Marlins are looking for offense, especially at the corners. Not that drafting for an immediate need ever makes sense, but new director of player development Rachel Balkovec has seen and had a hand in selecting and developing unicorn-type bats like Aaron Judge and Spencer Jones, to name a few. White might be a unicorn bat. He makes plenty of contact but also carries a high chase rate. It didn’t expose him in the SEC in 2023, so if it doesn’t in 2024, it would be hard to pass up a bat with that track record here.
Milwaukee Brewers: RHP Thatcher Hurd, LSU
JL: The Brewers typically do opt for the college route in the first round, for both talent and potential savings in later rounds. But Hurd comes into 2024 with some helium and big stuff after a late 2023 surge. He’s going to be the Tigers’ Friday starter in 2024 and has more than enough talent to pitch his way up into the top half of the first round.
Tampa Bay Rays: OF, Slade Caldwell, HS Ark
JS: An undersized outfielder, Caldwell offers an above-average hit tool, speed, and defense. Like many prepsters, Caldwell doesn't offer a ton in terms of power, but that could change as he matures physically.
New York Mets: C, Malcolm Moore, Stanford
JS: Moore is considered to be one of the top backstops in this year's class. His bat carries his value, as he offers above-average hitting skills along with pop from the left side of the plate. If he can refine his skills behind the plate, he could be a very solid average major league catcher.
Toronto Blue Jays: LHSP Cam Caminiti HS
WH: The Blue Jays have had a who’s who of bloodline players. Another bloodline player here, Caminiti is the nephew of big leaguer Ken Caminiti. The lefty reclassified to 2024 and is an arm to watch.
Minnesota Twins: OF Carson Benge, Oklahoma State
WH: Another talented two-way talent. If he focuses on hitting he has the potential to be an everyday player. Benge could be a player that rises up draft boards as July nears.
Baltimore Orioles: RHP Michael Massey, Wake Forest
JL: The Orioles haven’t picked a pitcher in the first round since 2018, and not a college arm since 2017. But they also haven’t picked this low in the draft since 2013. Things were a lot different then. This is going out on a limb a little bit that Massey moves into the Demon Deacon’s rotation in 2024 and flourishes. For what it’s worth, Nick Kurtz and Seaver King both said Massey was the nastiest pitcher they faced in fall ball last year. He won’t face too many better hitters than those two in the regular season.
Los Angeles Dodgers: TWP Noah Franco, IMG Academy, FL
JL: The Dodgers have opted for more college players early as late but they did go for an athlete last year in Kendall George. Why not opt for another talented athlete in 2024 in Franco, who might already have a swing geared for good power and might be able to have a future on the mound as well.
Atlanta Braves: P Jonathan Santucci, Duke
JS: The Blue Devils ace could see his stock continue to rise this spring. With a great metric fastball that tops 96 and a power slider to back it up, Santucci could hear his name called earlier if he can bring down his walks from last year.
San Diego Padres: INF, Caleb Bonemer, HS Mich
JS: The Virginia commit has a great deal of power on the right side of the plate. He lacks a bit in terms of his hitting ability but has shown flashes of being average or a tick below. While he does play shortstop, Bonemer will be a 3rd baseman in the future.
New York Yankees: SS, Carter Johnson, HS
WH: A left-handed sweet swinging shortstop with above-average pop. Sign me up! Well, sign the Bronx Bombers up for the Alabama native in this mock. Johnson could shift over to the hot corner where his glove, arm, and bat should play well.
Philadelphia Phillies: C, Caleb Lomavita California
WH: Lomavita is a value pick here, he's an above-average defender with a strong throwing arm and power. It would be unsurprising to see Lomavita drafted higher because of positional scarcity and talent.
Houston Astros: 3B Cam Smith, Florida State
JL: Smith had a strong Cape last year and improved his overall approach, and some think it might be worth seeing if he can handle shortstop. If Smith carries his successful Cape performance into 2024, and his improved approach sticks, that seems like the kind of bat the Astros would do well with late in the first round.
Arizona Diamondbacks: RHP Drew Beam, Tennessee
JL: Many view Beam as a potentially safe arm and while the Diamondbacks have done well developing pitchers without having to pluck them with early picks, it’s possible Beam could be an easy choice here to move through the system at a solid pace and fit into some of the clubs recent time frame.
Texas Rangers: INF Kaelen Culpepper, Kansas State
JS: The Kansas State shortstop, can be an average to slightly above-average player once he gets to pro ball. The hit tool carries the profile with the ability to be an average defender at a prime position. He was the top hitter for Team USA last summer which has helped his stock overall.
PPI
Arizona Diamondbacks: P Ryan Sloan, HS ILL
JS: A cold-weather power arm, Sloan has a great fastball with metrics to back it up. It has a great deal of ride to it and can manipulate in the upper part of the zone regularly. His change-up is his second-best pitch and he uses it well, with his slider not far behind.
Baltimore Orioles: OF, Dakota Jordan, Mississippi State
WH: The Orioles develop OF talent well. The Miss State product has plus power, a right field capable arm but contact concerns. It's a power-hitting profile from a potential corner bat with middle of the order thump.
FA Comp
Minnesota Twins: RHSP Ben Hess, Alabama
WH: Recovering from TJS is not what it once was. The power righty was mid to upper 90s before the injury. While it was a short track record the upside is huge for Hess if he can recover what he showed for the Crimson Tide.
Comp A
Baltimore Orioles: OF Derek Curiel, Orange (Calif.) Lutheran HS.
JL: Part of the Orioles going college pitching in the first round could help them grab a big-time high school bat with their Comp A pick in Curiel, who looks like he will hit and has big-time power projection.
Arizona Diamondbacks: SS Anthony Silva, TCU
JL: This might be more about finding a floor for Silva, who everyone projects to be a surefire shortstop and is expected to take a big step forward in 2024 with the bat.
CLEVELAND GUARDIANS: RHP Joey Oakie, Ankeny Centennial, IA
JL: Oakie is from Iowa and is committed to Iowa, but Cleveland had no issue buying out Alex Clemmey from a much stronger Vanderbilt commit in the Comp B round in ‘23, and this should be no different, especially with the bonus pool Cleveland has available this year. Oakie looks like a strong strike thrower from a low 3/4 slot, already throws up to 96, and has projection left in his body. He also has a low release point and en vogue vertical approach angle and one of the more wicked, high spin sliders among high school arms. Cleveland has not done that well with developing high school arms, but the projectability, spin rates, and control as a high school arm might be a fit for Cleveland here.
JS: Cleveland has shown the willingness to take a chance on cold weather prep arms in the past, and Oakie is no different. Oakie works from a low ¾ arm slot and repeats his delivery very consistently. While he is a bit undersized in terms of a right-handed pitcher, the stuff and ceiling are very high. His best pitch is currently his slider which has a great life and late bite. He pairs that with his mid-90s fastball that has topped 97. Like most high school pitchers, his Oakie has a change-up that is behind the other two offerings. He tunnels his pitches well and is a very uncomfortable at-bat for any hitter. If he can develop his changeup more, he could be a solid MOR arm. Others to watch, Trey Yesevage, Griff O’ Ferrell, Levi Sterling, Matt Ager, Owen Paino.
WH: It's hard to say which way Ethan Purser will go as the newest Scouting Director for Cleveland. If the past has any bearing this pick is likely an arm. However, with the depth of this class present in the hitting department, the club could simply go with the most talented hitter here. Oakie is an intriguing arm from Iowa. We saw Cleveland grab Alex Clemmey last season from Rhode Island so why not expect another cold weather/underdeveloped arm?
Players to know: this depends on who the team buys down the board. Here are a few possibilities: Owen Paino, Slade Caldwell, Carter Johnson, Levi Sterling, Trey Yesavage, Owen Hall, Matt Ager, Luke Holman, and Tyson Neighbors.
Pittsburgh Pirates: C Jacob Cozart, North Carolina State University
JS: Cozart is one of the best college catchers in the country. He is average to slightly above defensively and has some pop in the bat to carry him at the plate. The hit tool is slightly below average, but solid catching is hard to come by, and if he continues to develop, he could turn into a solid starter for a Major League team.
Colorado Rockies: P, Trey Yesevage, East Carolina University
JS: Yesevage is the next arm in line of high-level talents coming out of ECU. Yesevage’s best pitch is his slider, but the fastball is not too far behind. He used his fastball/slider combination 90% of the time last year and had a great deal of success just with those two pitches. Pitched for Team USA last summer.
Kansas City Royals: RHSP Luke Holman, LSU
WH: The righty doesn't have huge upside but he has a good combination of stuff and command. He controls the zone well and utilizes his four-pitch blend.