Examining the Guardians 40 Man Roster Decisions Next Month

With the World Series in full swing, soon after it ends, it will be time to start exploring 40-man roster decisions ahead of the Rule 5 deadline next month.

Unlike years past, Cleveland doesn’t exactly have a roster crunch like they did in the past. In fact, they probably only have one no-doubter addition to the 40-man roster this year, a few players that warrant probable consideration, and a bunch of players on the fringe that they could add if they feel strongly about them or their chances of being selected in the Rule 5 draft.

Just in case you’re not familiar with the Rule 5 draft, it’s where teams can select players who have reached a certain amount of years in their organization and aren’t on the 40-man roster (per CBA rules which I’ll list below). Players have to stick on the active roster (not the 60-day IL) for 90 days in the regular season if selected. More often than not, it’s relievers or bench-type players that are chosen as they’re easiest to hide for 90 days, but of course every now and then you find a gem. But it takes time for them to actually break out (Johan Santana, a 1999 Rule 5 pick had a 6.49 ERA in 2000, it took two seasons for Anthony Santander to accrue 90 days on a major league roster and had an OPS under .600 those first two years, and Trevor Stephan had a 4.41 ERA in 2021).

In recent years, here are some players Cleveland has lost, for context:

• RHP Nic Enright (2023 by Miami - returned)

• RHP Luis Oviedo (2020 by Pittsburgh - returned)

• OF Ka’ai Tom (2020 by Pittsburgh - designated but Cleveland opted not to take back)

• RHP Kyle Dowdy (2018 by New York Mets - returned)

The Guardians didn’t take anyone in the major league portion of the Rule 5 draft last year.

Here are the requirements to be eligible for the Rule 5 draft that takes place annually in December at the winter meetings.

Players who are signed or drafted at the age of 18 or younger as of June 5th of their signing or draft year, are eligible for the Rule 5 draft after 5 years in the minors. Players who are signed or drafted at the age of 19 or older as of June 5th of their signing or draft year, are eligible for the Rule 5 draft after four years in the minors.

For 2023:

Any player signed or drafted in 2019 that was 18 or younger as of June 5th, is eligible for the Rule 5 draft in 2023. 

Any player signed or drafted in 2020 that was 19 years or older as of June 5th, is eligible for the Rule 5 draft in 2023 

First-year eligibility (2023)

• RHP Cade Smith (2020 - college FA)

• RHP Daniel Espino (2019 - HS Draft)

• RHP Tanner Burns (2020 - college Draft)

• LHP Jaime Arias (2020 - college FA)

• RHP Mason Hickman (2020 - college Draft)

• RHP Josh Wolf (2019 - HS draft - trade NYM 2021)

• RHP Yorman Gomez (2019 - international FA)

• RHP Allan Hernandez (2019 - international FA)

• RHP Adrian Rodriguez (2019 - international FA)

• RHP Albert Brenton (2019 - international FA)

• RP Diego Navarro (2019 - international FA)
  

• C Joe Donovan (2020 - college FA)

• C Wilmer Hernandez (2019 - international FA)

• C Emilio Taveras (2019 - international FA)

• 1B Joe Naranjo (2019 - HS Draft)

• 1B Will Bartlett (2019 - HS Draft)

• 1B Nelson Aranguren (2019 - international FA)

• 1B Oscar Cedeno (2019 - international FA)
  

• INF Yordys Valdes (2019 - HS Draft)

• INF Christian Cairo (2019 - HS Draft)

• INF Juan Benjamin (2019 - international FA)

• INF Maick Callado (2019 - international FA)

• INF Jose Devers (2019 - international FA)

• INF Jose Pastrano (2019 - international FA)

• INF Kevin Rivas (2019 - international FA)

• OF Jorge Burgo (2019 - international FA)

• OF Wuilfredo Antunez (2019 - international FA)

• OF Luis Durango Jr. (2019 - international FA)

• OF Lexer Saury (2019 - international FA)

• OF Esteban Gonzalez (2019 - international FA)

• OF Samuel Parra (2019 - international FA)

Notable Previously Rule 5 Eligible Players

• RP Nick Mikolajchak (2022)

• RP Andrew Misiaszek (2022)

• RP Nic Enright (2022 - drafted by Miami, returned 2023)

• RHP Ethan Hankins (2022) (See On the Fringe)

• C Bryan Lavastida 2022, previously added to 40)

• 1B/OF Micah Pries (2022)

• INF Raynel Delgado (2022)

• INF Aaron Bracho (2021)

• INF Dayan Frias (2022) (See On the Fringe)

• OF Johnathan Rodriguez (2021) (See On the Fringe)

RP Nick Mikolajchak (2022): Mikolajchak was on the verge of earning a spot on the 40-man roster coming off of his 2021 season. Instead, his stuff backed up in 2022 and he ended up needing Tommy John in 2023. Some team could draft him and put him on the IL allow him to finish out his rehab that way, and let him work back in the minors. Again, there is no risk for that team to do that, so it makes Mikolajchak’s situation a little tricky. But unless Cleveland is convinced about what they’re seeing from him as he rehabs, I would lean that they will use their open roster spot on someone like Cade Smith.

RP Andrew Misiaszek (2022): Like Mikolajchak, Misiazek didn’t seem to be too far away from earning a 40-man roster spot at some point, but then also fell to an elbow injury last spring training. He fits into the same situation as Mikolajchak. He has an interesting two-pitch mix from a deceptive arm slot and a team could draft him and finish his rehab as a Rule 5 pick. But Cleveland also probably cannot prioritize him right now unless they really like what they’ve seen during his recovery.

RP Nic Enright (2022 - drafted by Miami, returned 2023): Enright beat cancer last year and came back to pitch in the minors for Miami before they decided to end his shot at sticking on their roster as a Rule 5 player. He could easily be picked again but it’s hard to know how Cleveland feels about him at the moment in comparison to where Smith is at, and still working through the decisions on the two above relievers. They’re all in very similar situations.

C Bryan Lavastida 2022, previously added to 40): Lavastida has not been able to recreate the 2021 success that got him added to the 40-man roster. He was designated for assignment in 2023 and went unclaimed. He did turn things around to an extent in the minors this year and it’s not hard to hide catchers on a roster as a Rule 5 pick. This one is tricky too. Bo Naylor and David Fry appear to be the only catchers the Guardians will have on their 40-man roster going into the offseason, and Fry really works best as the third catcher so he can play other spots against left-handed pitchers, so Cleveland needs a backup. Seeing as how Cleveland may prefer a veteran in this role, it feels unlikely it will be Lavastida.

1B/OF Micah Pries (2022): After a semi-breakout in 2022, Pries didn’t get added to the 40-man roster and he went unselected in the Rule 5 draft. He struggled with Triple-A pitcher, so it seems like this won’t be his year, but I won’t be shocked if he has a nice year in Triple-A this year and makes himself attractive in a trade or as a minor league free agent next year.

INF Raynel Delgado (2022): No longer a switch hitter, Delgado has shown a slightly better bat and plate discipline. That along with being a potentially above-average defender at two or three spots, makes him an interesting utility candidate. Cleveland doesn’t have the room for him and it doesn’t seem likely he will be selected, but his year was worth noting.

INF Aaron Bracho (2021): It’s probably worth noting that Bracho also stopped switch-hitting last year (like Rodriguez and Delgado) and focused on hitting left-handed. The former high-profile international free agent rediscovered some game power and patience from that side. However, there is still a lot of swing and miss in his game, he has trouble with left-handers, and he really doesn’t have a position on the field you feel good about penciling him in at. The intrigue of picking him could be to see if he can continue to rebound in 2024 like he did in 2023, and because he is a former high-profile international free agent, and another team who was interested in him back then might take the chance on him now. But the value doesn’t seem high here and he’s not in position for Cleveland to prioritize him and they aren’t in that position either.

Guaranteed Adds

RHP Daniel Espino (1st round, 2019 draft): There’s really not much need for an explanation here. If healthy, Espino might have made his major league debut in 2023. He was recovering from shoulder surgery instead and may not be back till sometime in the summer of 2024. A healthy Daniel Espino is easily in the conversation for the top pitching prospect in the whole sport. Shoulder surgeries are tricker than Tommy John, and it remains to be seen how Espino bounces back, but obviously, Cleveland won’t be letting anyone else get the chance to carry him on the injured list while he does. 

Probable Adds

RHP Cade Smith (UDFA, 2020): If you’re not a regular follower of the Rule 5 draft, pitching, specifically relief pitching, are among the most common picks. It’s the easiest place to pick up some relief depth and occasionally find a key cog to your bullpen (Trevor Stephan). Smith was an undrafted free agent out of Hawaii University by way of Canada in 2020 who probably would have been drafted in a year not shortened to five rounds. Smith is tall, lanky, and strong. He comes from a 3/4 arm slot and can run his fastball up to 98. He experienced a change in pitch mix this year, showing some Stephan-like traits with a hard running heater, and throwing a hard splitter to compliment his slider. He pitched in the WBC for Team Canada. Control is still an issue and his K% slipped a little as he adjusted to his new pitch mix this year, but still an easy target for teams looking for bullpen help and Cleveland needs more arms that can ride the I-71 shuttle with Tim Herrin in 2024, so Smith is likely.

On the Fringe

OF Johnathan Rodriguez (3rd round, 2017 draft, previously, R5 eligible in 2021/2022): Originally a switch hitter, Rodriguez has spent at least the last two years as a right-handed, sell-out for power type hitter. There is some traits of zone control here, but the swing decisions are still fringe at best. He provides value in the outfield with his arm, which is one of the best in the Guardians system right now, but the rest of his defensive profile isn’t adding any value, more likely costing bases and runs. There’s a lot of Oscar Gonzalez risk in this type of profile, but while the Guardians are trying to search for ways to add more run production to the lineup, it might make sense to give him a shot in the event they can’t upgrade right field with a more proven hitter this winter. There are some that might say Cleveland might as well add him just to make sure another team doesn’t take him and they’re not burned by another loss on a hitter, but that’s a bad way to run a team, leads to poor roster management, and generally feels like you don’t trust your own decision-making process.

INF Dayan Frias (International Free Agent, 2017, previously R5 eligible in 2022): Frias is not unlike many other franchise mates that currently occupy spots on the 40-man roster. A solid defender, with a feel for the zone and contact, and is a switch hitter. It’s Cleveland’s favorite archetype. Frias, however, is likely not a shortstop, but more of a second/third base type. He has more than enough arm for the left side of the infield. He showed he could take a walk and there is some pop in the left side of his bat. And there’s speed. However, I don’t know if there are enough refined tools in his game to stick at the major league level in 2024, even as a 26th man/utility infielder, unless a team really believes he can play shortstop. A player like that almost has to be able to handle short and with Frias, that doesn’t feel like a guarantee. Cleveland really can’t afford to protect him without moving one of their infielders at this point anyway, but there are some interesting traits here. Not to mention, he hasn’t played above High-A, which is somewhat uncommon in R5 picks.

RHP Ethan Hankins (1st round, 2018 draft, previously eligible in 2022): I’m not even sure Hankins is on the fringe right now other than his name and previous draft pick value. There were flashes of the first-round stuff there in his comeback in 2023. He’s still working his way back, however. By now, you should know Hankins missed a year of development and reps in 2020 during the pandemic, 2021 and 2022 with Tommy John and some other minor injuries in 2022. He also missed a bit of time in 2023. He has yet to surpass High-A. This all makes it very hard to see him sticking on a 26-man roster all season, which is generally the basis of protecting/picking a player. Now, a team could throw a no-risk dart at the board and hope he can be hidden in the bullpen and work with his natural arm talent. But most teams really like to be able to game the system by abusing the injured list to hide Rule 5 players and buy time. That’s really not going to be an advantageous option with Hankins because he’s already missed time. Of course, teams can use the “injured” list time to put him in rehab, but that’s 30 days. So at the end of the day, Hankins might be worth a gamble for some team, but I think it would be likely he gets returned to the Guardians if this happens, making him a fringe candidate at best for 2024.

Names To Know, Remember

RP Nick Mikolajchak (2022) (See Notable Previously Eligible Players)

RP Andrew Misiaszek (2022) (See Notable Previously Eligible Players)

RP Nic Enright (2022 - drafted by Miami, returned 2023) (See Notable Previously Eligible Players)

C Bryan Lavastida (2022, previously added to 40) (See Notable Previously Eligible Players)

RHP Tanner Burns (2020 - college Draft): Burns is notable because he was a former first-round pick in 2020 and his 2021 season started off promising. He has dealt with injuries in both 2022 and 2023 with his stuff backing up. The 96-97 he was throwing at Auburn really has not been there in the pros. It was enough and telling that he finished the 2023 season in the bullpen. It wouldn’t be a shock for a team to bite on the “former first-rounder” chance with Burns, other teams have scouts and video available too and probably see what the Guardians saw in their decision to put him in the bullpen. Safe to say, 2024 is a big year for Burns.

RHP Mason Hickman (2020 - college Draft): Hickman is a little similar to Nic Enright in terms of height, stuff, and, talent level. Hickman was a starter in 2021 and part of 2022 but has been mostly a reliever. He pitched solidly in the AFL in 2022 and he misses some bats with a riding fastball despite only throwing 91-93 at best out of the bullpen, a big 12-6 hook, and good control. It doesn’t seem likely he’s earned a spot in anyone’s camp or pen as a Rule 5 pick yet. 

OF Wuilfredo Antunez (2019 - international FA): Batted ball data suggests there is some intrigue to Antunez. There’s some pop here, a little speed, still the possibility of playing center, and an idea of the zone. He’s continued to have injury issues, among some maturity ones as well. Some talent here other teams would be interested in as part of the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft, but not the majors since he’s not been above Low-A yet. I would assume Cleveland will protect him from the minor league portion of the draft, however.

INF Yordys Valdes (2019 - HS Draft): A former second-round pick, Valdes has mostly had the bat knocked out of his hands in the pros since being drafted. He brings a slick glove and speed, and he started to show improvement with the bat late in 2022 and early in 2023, but he hasn’t sustained that. He hasn’t played above High-A yet and wouldn’t stick on a big league roster.

INF Christian Cairo (2019 - HS Draft): Cairo was selected two rounds after Valdes in 2019 and has raised a tad better with the bat, but not much. And he hasn’t been healthy. He’s currently making up lost reps in the AFL and learning to play left field. He’s a future utility player at best but time missed and only being at High-A means being off the radar as far as Rule 5 goes for now.

INF Juan Benjamin (2019 - international FA): Some see sleeper upside in Benjamin but he’s 20 and just played 98 games at Low-A this past season. There’s a lot more to see here before worrying about Rule 5 with him.

INF Maick Callado (2019 - international FA): Callado isn’t really built like a first baseman but had a nice start to the year in Low-A as a 20-year-old there, but hit first almost zero power. Seems to have a good idea of the zone, but as a corner infielder right now, doesn’t look like a fit for a major league team at this time.

INF Jose Devers (2019 - international FA): Devers and Antunez are maybe the two most interesting candidates from Low-A on this list, but I give the edge to Devers. He can play shortstop and showed some power in Low-A along with speed. It would be a shock to see a 20-year-old Low-A infielder without huge power go in the Rule 5 draft, unless someone liked the batted ball data. However, Cleveland doesn’t really share data, so does another team have access to this? He’d be the closest player worth protecting from this level, but it’s hard to make the case for anyone in Low-A, especially a team packed with middle infielders unless they move one first to make space for Devers if they liked him that much.

INF Jose Pastrano (2019 - international FA): At one time it seemed like Pastrano was a somewhat higher-profile international signing, but he’s had health issues and hasn’t shown anything to back that while on the field to this point.

Making Spots on the 40

It feels like Cleveland will have the chance to clear up to three spots at least on the 40-man roster, and maybe as many as five or six. Of course, they could do something strange on the day of the 40-man deadline, like trade for someone like Tobias Myers. But this is what feels most likely.

Right now, the Guardians roster sits at 40.

Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, and Kole Calhoun are all free agents, which clears three spots. Logical reasoning would suggest Cam Gallagher should be non-tendered to create a fourth spot. Tanner Bibee has to be re-added from the 60 day injured list to go back onto the 40-man, so that would leave them with a total of three roster spots to put them at 37. 

My best guess as of now is that Espino and Smith, are added, and possibly Rodriguez is the best bet among the fringe, but it’s very possible that they re-sign Rodriguez to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training, as he could be a minor league free agent. However, he would still be eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft, the same way Oscar Gonzalez was two years ago, putting them at 39 roster spots, and who knows if they’ll make another 40-man deadline move for another player.

James Karinchak, Michael Kelly, and Gonzalez could all be non-tender candidates to clear spots as well, and none would surprise me, especially Gonzalez, should Cleveland decide to add Rodriguez, because having both would be redundant.