Cleveland Guardians 2024 Prospect Scouting Report: #32 RHP Ross Carver

Carver's 2023 line on the surface looks rough, but there may be more there from a scouting perspective

Ross Carver Bio

• Age (2024 season): 24

• Acquired: Trade (Carlos Vargas - 2022)

• 2023 Level: Double-A

• Height: 6’2

• Weight: 205

• Throws: Right

Ross Carver 2023 Stats

• G: 19

• IP: 71.2

• ERA/FIP: 6.12/4.32

• K/BB: 81/34

• K%/BB%: 25.2%/10.6%

• WHIP: 1.42

Ross Carver 2024 Scouting Grades

• Fastball: 50

• Slider: 45

• Curve: 50

• Changeup: 55

• Command: 40

• Overall: 40

• Risk: High

• ETA: 2025

Build & Background

Medium build. Stature is just slightly under that of a class starters frame. Solid athleticism and does show a well built lower half. Carver uses a standard waist high leg kick before moving into a drop and drive delivery. Has a short arm stroke similar to Lucas Giolito and Aaron Civale, keeping his arm swing tighter and closer to his body, rather than a long, full swing. He has a wide 3/4 arm slot and appears to get plenty of extension, using his limbs and lower half well. Carver was a 23rd round pick of the Rangers out of high school in 2019, and then a 20th round selection of the Diamondbacks in 2021 out of Dallas Baptist University, after spending two years at Crowder College (JUCO). Cleveland acquired Carver in the 2022 offseason in exchange for Carlos Vargas to open up a 40 man roster spot. 

What Carver Does Well

An above average changeup with fade and plenty of arm side run leads Carver’s arsenal right now. It could even be a plus pitch with better control and play up if other pitches improve. Left handed hitters had a hard time laying off with all of the run on it. His fastball gets plenty of arm side run as well, not really a sinker or two seamer though. He’ll run it 91-96 but typically sits 93-95. It’s a good pitch when he runs it in on his hands or backdoors it. His changeup and fastball seem to have similar movements in terms of arm side run, which may help his changeup. His curveball also flashes above average at time in terms of shape. It’s a tight, power breaker with short hump but a very quick, late break. He also has what looks like a slider-cutter hybrid and it could be more like a bullet-slider with more horizontal movement than vertical, but not a sweeper. It’s tight and runs in the upper-80s and is good against right handers. His arsenal is capable of missing plenty of bats as a starter, certainly more as a reliever. His short arm swing also can convince me that he’s going to find better control than he’s shown.

Where Carver Needs to Improve

Control is mostly where Carver needs to put things together. In 2022,  he did have better control, maybe even average. Last year some of the start and stop to his season with his injury (oblique) could have set him back in that department. But he has a good arsenal and with even average control he would take a step forward as a prospect. His fastball is hittable over the plate, so I wonder if his current fastball shape is best for him, even with the run on it that might aid his changeup. Using more of a four-seam might help, and perhaps that’s why he has the cutter. He will occasionally leave his changeup run over the middle of the plate, making it easy for better hitters to do damage with it. His breaking ball execution is lacking in terms of consistency and shape. It’s a good pitch when the shape and control are consistent. Overall fastball command would also help for him as a starting point as well.

Key Stats

I started to take more notice of Carver for his final two month run of 2023. From August until the end of the season, Carver struck out 48 and walked just 15 in 44 innings, good for a 26.4 K% and 8.2 BB%. He pitched to a 3.70 FIP, batters hit .218 against him and had a WHIP of 1.16. Even in June and July coming back from his injury, he struck out 27 but walked 14 in 18 innings. 

Intangibles

Truth be told, I don’t have a ton of background on Carver other than him being what appears to be a good potential underdog story. While he was drafted out of high school, he spent two years at a JUCO and played his junior year at DBU and as a 20th round pick, he looks like a sleeper prospect. He bet on himself a little going to college and didn’t end up going much higher, but has been steady regardless. 

Future

I picked Jose Pirela as my interesting, possible breakout from my hitters list in the 35+ OVR group. Carver is my pitcher pick in this 40 group as a possible breakout. Some improvements in control and consistency could make things click for him. I like the stuff and think there’s a mid-rotation starter here. I’m not comparing him to Corey Kluber, but the story is similar where he had the ability to miss bats in the minors but struggled with conistency until he found something to make it all come together. I’m not predicting two Cy Young’s for Carver, but I think he could go from being just an interesting guy who can miss some bats to someone who actually could be a starter at the big league level. If not, his fastball, curve and change give him some solid relief upside here. That’s why I put his risk as high as much as I like the stuff, there’s still no guarantee here.

Role

40 - Mid-rotation starter upside, possible middle relief role with high risk