2025 Cleveland Guardians Prospect Scouting Report: #11 RHP Austin Peterson

Where is Austin Peterson's true ceiling as a starter?

May 06, 2025

Age (2024 season): 25
Acquired: 2022 Draft (9th round)
2024 Level: Double-A
Height: 6’6
Weight: 234
Throws: Right

First impression

Lanky strike thrower with a strong changeup, average stuff overall but gets more out of it thanks to control/command and extension.

What Makes Peterson Fun

Throwing strikes and avoiding walks is what sticks out first for Peterson after something of a 2024 breakout. While he might be a control over command type arm, he’s got enough command and enough stuff to have made it all work. A lighter velocity fastball is a bit of a concern but it can play up thanks to his extension due to his lanky build and delivery. Plenty of arm side run that helps him backdoor it to left handers and could help him on the inside part of the plate against lefties. Throws what looks like a power type changeup. He doesn’t have big velocity separation on it, but it looks like a sinker with its lateral movement and a changeup with its vertical drop, and comes in around the mid-to-high-80s, getting ugly swings and misses at Double-A in 2024. Above average slider has really good sweep. Lands curveball for strikes. Repeats delivery well for a long and lanky type pitcher

What Could Hold Peterson Back

The lighter fastball could be a concern against better hitters as he moves up. The extension will help but the room for error will shrink against better hitters if he remains 91-93, even when it plays up. He’ll need to locate it well. Has arm side run but would like to see it become more of a weapon on the hands of lefties. Curveball is a solid pitch for him but is more of a strike stealer than a bat misser. Needs more separation from slider. Delivery can speed up and get out of sync at times with runners on. Longer delivery and body can lead to issues holding runners on. Older for his level, which isn’t something he can improve on, but will need to prove what he did in 2024 is real.

Key Metric

5.9% and 2.1% - That’s how much Peterson increased his strikeout rate and decreased his walk rate, respectively, from his 2023 Low-A debut to his 2024 High-A/Double-A “breakout.” He struck more batters out moving from a lower level that he should have dominated in 2023 but didn’t, to dominating higher levels in 2024.

Intangibles

Peterson is an unassuming competitor with a track record. Despite not coming up with better numbers in 2023, he came back in 2024 with much better performance. Looks very even keel on the mound and looks the same after striking out the side in order as he does when allowing a homer.

Future

A lot of my evaluation of Peterson hinges on him continuing his dominant 2024 performance at Triple-A in 2025 and that translating to the majors. I do worry about the velocity since so much of a pitcher’s success in today’s environment depends on having a certain threshold of it (not everyone needs to throw 96-97, but consistent starting pitchers need a baseline of 94 or so). The extension on his delivery does help it play up but I think he could still be homer prone with it if he’s more of a control over command type arm. I like the slider and changeup enough as individual pitches but he’ll need to keep getting chases off the plate as he moves up, which is no easy task either against better hitters. Getting hitters to respect his fastball more will help his secondaries. He might need a cutter to help keep hitters off the fastball too. I think there’s enough here for him to become a fourth starter in the bigs. Size and durability certainly looks like they should be in his favor to be a 170 inning guy who at times might be a 5-and-fly type. If the fastball plays thanks to extension and his 2024 run carries into higher levels in 2025, this will look a bit light. If starting doesn’t work out for him, his velocity picking up in the bullpen with his changeup/slider could make him a dynamite setup man.

Role/Risk

50/Moderate- Back of the rotation type starter