2024 MLB Draft 1.1 Stock Watch List - End of June

While the first-round pick in everyone’s draft isn’t the most important, especially in baseball. Cleveland Guardians picking #1 overall for the first time in franchise history is worth paying closer attention to, especially when there is no clear cut option at 1-1 as there has been in years past and the draft finally getting here in two weeks. The Guardians bonus slot at 1-1 is $10,570,600, though they are not expected to pay the full lot to any pick, as is almost always the case for anyone picking 1-1. Cleveland has $18,334,000 to spend in the full draft and they want to be able to use it on other picks as well.

Each week of the amateur baseball season in 2024, we updated the weekly stats of candidates all year and tried to look where they stood and give the stock watch on their likelihood of being the selection for the Guardians. Of course, none of that ever factored in the bonus situation, as that kind of talk started to heat up late in the season. Now that the games are done and agents and advisors are now doing the work to negotiate where these players will go and how much they’ll get, which will of course impact who the Guardians will take.

So in addition to stats, we’ll give our final breakdown of the 1-1 watch list and put who we think ends up going where. If nothing changes the final week before the draft, we’ll leave it the same and only update it if major news impacts the stocks for these players.

End of June

2B Travis Bazzana (Oregon State): 55 GP - .418/.581/.939, 16 2B, 4 3B, 26 HR, 15 SB, 71 BB/32 K: Bazzana leaves a storied program at Oregon State as the single season or career leader in many different offensive categories. He came into 2024 looking to increase his power output with countless hours of work at Driveline to optimize his attack angle to get to more pull power and it paid off in games immediately for him. It led to more teams pitching around him, increasing his walk total. Of course, Bazzana also has a Cape Cod League MVP to back his performance up with the wood bat. Remember teams are also drafting traits more than they’re drafting player performance. Bazzana has a swing that is ready for pro ball, a good approach, and the necessary work ethic to match his talent that should help him get better. His long term position and growth are the question marks. There are some who think he can make the transition to the outfield, and with his work ethic, it would be unwise to bet against him. Most believe the floor is pick #4 for him, so his bonus demands won’t be the “lowest” the Guardians can offer, but they could go as high as $10M. His makeup and traits are exactly what Cleveland values and its been rumored Cleveland does indeed really like Bazzana.

RHP Chase Burns (Wake Forest): 12 GS - 77.2 IP, 155 K/18 BB, 2.43 ERA: Burns got to Wake Forest via a transfer from eventual champion Tennessee. The Vols were using him in a hybrid role in 2023, and Burns wanted to concentrate on starting and working with Wake’s pitching lab to throw more strikes, optimize his delivery and improve his secondaries. Mission accomplished. He toned down some effort in his delivery late in the year and had some of the best whiff rates in college baseball on multiple of his offerings. Burns still runs a lot of relief risk due to lack of overall command, not quite having that level that Paul Skenes had a year ago and there is still some overall effort remaining in that delivery. His fastball, for as hard as he throws it, still got hit hard, but there were the sames concerns about Skenes’ fastball and he seems to have quelled those with pro coaching, so the same could be true for Burns. While he has probably three plus pitches, control, delivery and overall injury concerns might cloud Burns’ probability of going 1-1. His floor also appears to be pretty high, but his bonus demands probably come at the minimum of about $8.5M that could be attractive for Cleveland’s spread the money around strategy. However, this doesn’t seem like a strong year for a college pitcher to go 1-1, but there are those in the organization that are really impressed with Burns.

LHP/1B Jac Caglianone (Florida) .415/.525/.844, 4 2B, 29 HR, 41 BB/21 K; 62 IP, 68 K/44 BB, 4.35 ERA: No doubt that Caglianone had one of the best ever college seasons. He hit tons of homers, struck out less than a year ago and saw more walks, most of the intentional variety. Caglianone has had no problem finding the baseball with the barrel of the bat, even when the ball isn’t in the strike zone. He makes an absurd amount of contact for a player that chases the ball out of the zone a ton (38%). The power is very real, but can he make that level of chase rate work at the next level? It will only be harder to pull off as he faces better pitching and approach/swing decisions are the hardest thing to coach/improve. As a pitcher, Caglianone has serious arm talent, missing plenty of bats and throws up to 97 from the left side. However, his secondaries and control lag behind and most don’t view him as a two way player at the next level. His future is likely as a hitter, at first base. His positional value also clouds his future and potential at 1-1. There have been reports with Cleveland tied to him, but it’s hard to believe his chase rate and positional value are a fit at 1-1 for Cleveland’s normal approach. His floor is likely in the top 5 as well, which means his discount won’t be all that big and that will probably also put him on the lower end of probabilities. Caglianone also appears to have an impressive competitive desire, character and work ethic.

OF/1B/3B Charlie Condon (Georgia) .443/.558/1.043, 19 2B, 35 HR, 50 BB/39 K, 10 HBP - Condon won the Golden Spikes award for best college player for the 2024 season, and there’s no argument to made there. He pummeled homers and forced teams to pitch around him as well. He put in the work to be trusted to get chances at third base, centerfield and other outfield spots. The 6’5 slugger has long limbs but somehow manages to keep his swing short, he makes plenty of contact in the zone. He may have a hole in his swing up with heat, as a lot of long limbed slugger often do. He does have some interesting home/road splits that have made some question things a little and he may be best suited for a corner outfield spot or first base at the next level. Those things are his question marks, but also reportedly has the highest bonus demand. He doesn’t typically fit what Cleveland targets but he also has some traits they’ve been lacking in the system, but the bonus demand might also be a deterrent for their strategy. 

OF/RHP Konnor Griffin (High School) .559/.690/.966, 13 2B, 4 3B, 9 HR, 47 BB, 10 K, 85 SB; 67.2 IP, 107 K, 26 BB, 0.72 ERA: The one high school player that Cleveland has been connected to is Griffin. He pitched and played shortstop in high school and was good at it both ways. He’s a position player to most at the next level, possibly as an outfield. He insists he can play short and will play wherever he’s asked to. He’s committed to LSU. There’s big power and speed, making Griffin one of, if not THE toolsiest player in the draft. Some believe he could be a 30/30 SS/OF. The question is the ability to make contact, and the history of prep players in Mississippi is questionable as well. He’s committed to LSU, which could prove to be a big one, but he should go in the top 10 or so. He has the most leverage in terms of bonus demands with his college commitment and is the top ranked prep player, but it’s hard to imagine Cleveland prioritizing paying him more money than what they would commit to one to the college options. That may make him the biggest wild card here. 

INF JJ Wetherholt (West Virginia): 36 G, .331/.472/.589, 8 2B, 8 HR, 30 BB/17 K - Coming into the season, Wetherholt was at the top of most boards due to his ability to hit and he was making the move to shortstop. He hurt his hamstring early in the year and missed quite a bit of time. After coming back, he was limited to DH for a bit but hit plenty once he got settled back in. He’s a little smaller and less built that Bazzana, but possess perhaps an even better hit tool and the two share similar batted ball data including contact rates, chase rates and exit velocity. Wetherholt has a better chance of playing a premium defensive position long term. Due to his injury and possibly having a lower floor in this draft, most peg him to accept the lower side of bonus demands ($8-$8.5M) which puts him in play, and that he was the probable 1-1 before the year and injury. 

Justin’s ranking

1. Travis Bazzana

2. JJ Wetherholt

3. Charlie Condon

4. Jac Caglianone

5. Chase Burns

Comment: I’m going by what has been the connections mostly. I’ve been on Bazzana at 1-1 most of the season and I’m not changing now. I think they value Bazzana and Wetherholt very similarly and both of them have similar data to boot. I personally see more offensive upside for Bazzana in the majors than Wetherholt, plus less injury history. I would almost put the two’s odds at 50%/50% at this point over Condon or Caglianone, or anyone else. If it’s not 50%/50%, maybe it’s more 40%/40% if anything, but it’s going to come down to bonuses. My guess is Bazzana will get $9.5M and Wetherholt might take $8.5-$9M. Does Cleveland think the two are similar enough to save the $500,000-$1M? Very possible, but I also think there’s a chance they think it’s worth it to pay that money to Bazzana if they think he’s slightly better.