2024 MLB Draft 1.1 Stock Watch List - Week 5
Keeping track of the Guardians options at #1 overall in the 2024 draft by week and ranking the choices
While the first-round pick in everyone’s draft isn’t the most important, especially in baseball, the Cleveland Guardians picking #1 overall for the first time in franchise history is worth paying closer attention to.
So at the end of each week, we’ll update some of the candidates’ names and stats from the past week and for the season. We will rank our current favorites, in order, to take #1 overall this July. We may add or subtract names from this list as the season goes on, depending on who we think deserves to be in the conversation.
Week 5
2B Travis Bazzana (Oregon State) 8-16, 3 2B, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 1 BB/1 K vs. Utah; .429/.560/.843, 5 2B, 3 3B, 6 HR, 10 RBI, 5/5 SB, 20 BB/11 K - Utah isn’t prime competition, and Bazzana took and 0-for on Friday and rebounded with a huge day Sunday with five hits. He’s at least beating on teams he should and who knows what the PAC-12 will really have to offer. At the least, he might be the best college hitter in the country right now, not that it guarantees he’s the 1-1 pick.
RHP Chase Burns (Wake Forest) 7IP, 2H, ER, 13 K/2 BB vs. Virginia; 30IP, 16H, 7ER, 56 K/12 BB - Virginia took it to Josh Hartle on Friday, then Burns came back and dominated that same lineup on Saturday, so take that as a pretty good sign for him at least.
LHP/1B Jac Cagliaone (Florida) 6-14, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 2K vs. Texas A&M, 5.1IP, 4H, 2ER, 7 K/5 BB vs. Texas A&M; .415/.489/.633, 2B, 7 HR, 18 RBI, 11 BB/9 K; 20.1IP, 1.77 EA, 34 K/13 BB - Cagliaone hit two solo homers Friday and that was the extent of his weekend at the plate. He walked five in his outing Sunday and surrendered a homer to Braden Montgomery in the outing. He’s a fun, talented player but his walks and aggressive approach haven’t really reigned in yet.
OF/1B/3B Charlie Condon (Georgia) 1-8, 2B, 3 RBI, 5 BB/2 K vs. Kentucky; .543/.667/1.243, 8 2B, 3B, 13 HR, 29 RBI, 23 BB/10 K - Tough weekend for Condon in his first SEC action in 2024. Kentucky isn’t considered to be top tier in the SEC, so perhaps a telling weekend for Condon as we get into conference play. He struggled with Georgia Tech too. Is this a blip in the radar, or will SEC competition bring home down?
OF/RHP Konnor Griffin (High School) .696/.800/1.239, 8 2B, 3B, 5 HR, 13 RBI, 26 BB/3 K; 26IP, 0.00 ERA, 51 K/7 BB - Griffin continues to dominate in high school on both sides of the ball and was one of the pitchers in a team no-hitter. He still seems like the only high school guy in play at 1-1, though some have mentioned PJ Morlando.
OF Vance Honeycutt (UNC) 0-11, 6 K/3 BB, 0/1 SB vs. Miami; .294/.413/.541, 3 2B, 6 HR, 30 K/14 BB, 12 SB - Brutal weekend for Honeycutt against Miami, who doesn’t have a big name pitching staff. Honeycutt was better last weekend and now we’re into ACC play, so now’s the time for Honeycutt to really prove how high he should go.
OF Seaver King (Wake Forest) 5-14, RBI, K/BB, 1 SB vs. Virginia; .326/.373/.587, 3 2B, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 4 SB, 6 K/2 BB - King had an OK weekend against Virginia. He had minimal impactful offense but he’s also now hitting fourth in a lineup with it’s anchor. His approach makes it hard to wonder how high he’ll go, even as a top 10 talent.
1B Nick Kurtz (Wake Forest) 0-1, BB vs. Virginia; .241/.475/.444, 2 2B, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 24 BB/12 K - Kurtz has a shoulder issue that will keep him out 3-4 weeks after diving for a ground ball. He’s already had a hard time getting going power wise because of lack of quality pitches to drive. This might be even more difficult for him to get it going. It’s not about how you start, but how you finish. There’s still time for him but could he drop?
LHP Hagen Smith (Arkansas): 6IP, 2H, 10 K/BB vs. Missouri; 23IP, 1.57 ERA, 50 K/8 BB - Smith dominated Missouri, while not a big name program, is still solid and in the SEC. Smith keeps cruising along and should be the first or second arm off the board in competition with Burns right now.
SS/2B JJ Wetherholt (West Virginia): DNP: (Hamstring) Last game 2/9 vs. Stetson (.308/.438/.385, 2B, 3SB, 3BB/2BB): The hamstring issue has been keeping Wetherholt out of action, which is limiting chances to see him at shortstop.
Justin’s ranking
Travis Bazzana
Nick Kurtz
Konnor Griffin
Charlie Condon
Hagen Smith
In next: Chase Burns
Comment: No movement for me yet from the last update in ranking. I think Bazzana is still clearly the top choice right now, especially with Kurtz hurt. If Condon had crushed Kentucky, I might have moved him up, but he had a rough weekend. I’m close to moving Smith ahead of Griffin and I’m thinking it might be time to move Burns harder into consideration. It’s going be tough with some people out and beginning to consider pitching a little more.
Willie’s ranking
Travis Bazzana
Konnor Griffin
Charlie Condon
Chase Burns
Hagen Smith
Comment: Bazzana maintains the top spot on the board as the most polished collegiate prospect in this draft class. There's a lot that can be said, but he is to his team what Jose Ramirez is to the Guardians. Griffin continues to do all that he can to push himself into the top 5. He's played SS almost all season and some scouts think he could stick in the dirt. He has all the tools to be a star hitting nearly .700 (you read that right) with well over 40 stolen bases and taking walks aplenty. Condon has produced XBH at a 58% clip so far this spring. That's the equivalent of near double plus (70) power outcomes. While Condon's weekend wasn't what we've grown accustomed to seeing thus far this season he got on base and was selective at the dish. Burns is posting insane K-rates and generating more swing and miss than the wind turbines of Northeast Ohio. The righty is deploying his mid-upper 90s fastball (touching 101) deep into starts paired with two variations of his slider, a useful curve, and a developing, but firm changeup. Smith had yet another impressive start this weekend recording double-digit punchouts. He's in the driver's seat in becoming the first left-hander off the board in July. The Razorbacks ace could be the best-starting pitcher in this class, but he still has opportunities to make command gains.
Others considered:
Two-way player Jac Caglianone has been impressive on either side of the ball this season. There's improved command and a nasty fastball change of pace combo. At the dish, he's shown discipline improvements. Nick Kurtz's season was abruptly interrupted with a shoulder injury. He's shown professionalism at-bats and patience. JJ Wetherholt has yet to show he's healthy enough to contribute. Once he's healthy, he could hit his way up this list quickly. Braden Montgomery's name has yet to break this list but he's showing increased power, a reduction in strikeouts, and an increase in walks. He's a player that's quietly done all he can to climb the draft boards. Seaver King has continued to hit and show off double-plus speed he's not likely a 1.1 candidate but should be off the board in the back half of the top 10.