2024 MLB Draft 1.1 Stock Watch List - Week 14
While the first-round pick in everyone’s draft isn’t the most important, especially in baseball. Cleveland Guardians picking #1 overall for the first time in franchise history is worth paying closer attention to.
So at the end of each week, we’ll update some of the candidates’ names and stats from the past week and for the season. We will rank our current favorites, in order, to take #1 overall this July. We may add or subtract names from this list as the season goes on, depending on who we think deserves to be in the conversation.
Week 14 (End of Regular Season)
The regular season is over, and we’ll update these accordingly during the tournament and postseason, and the tournaments should be fun as the top talents will get a chance to go head to head.
2B Travis Bazzana (Oregon State) 7-14, 5 2B, 2 BB, 3 K vs. Arizona (.429/.587/.963, 16 2B, 4 3B, 26 HR, 68 BB/31 K, 14 SB): Bazzana had an impressive weekend against a pretty good Arizona pitching staff as his team went to play for the final regular season PAC12 title. They came up a game short, but Bazzana had another strong weekend. The Beavers will get into the NCAA tourney where he will have a shot to play against better pitching and continue to make his case.
https://x.com/MLBPipeline/status/1789778154573156714
RHP Chase Burns (Wake Forest) 7IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 13 K, 0 BB vs NC State; (71.2 IP, 140 K, 16 BB, 2.64 ERA): Burns ended the regular season on an absurd three game stretch with 20 innings, one earned run allowed, 42 strikeouts and just three walk. NC State may not have a ton of draft talent this year but they’ve been a highly ranked team all year and Burns made easy work of him. He’s matching Hagen Smith outing for outing to be the best pitcher on the board.
https://x.com/TylerJennings24/status/1791648978016387264
LHP/1B Jac Caglianone (Florida) 4-12, 2B, HR, 3 BB, 3 K; 2.1 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 2 K vs. Georgia; (.413/.525/.851, 29 HR, 41 BB, 21 K; 62 IP, 68 K, 44 BB, 4.35 ERA): Caglianone hit as expected against Georgia in a big matchup, but it wasn’t a strong pitching performance against a good lineup that could have separated himself on both sides of the ball.
https://x.com/JoeDoyleMiLB/status/1791911970616344728
OF/1B/3B Charlie Condon (Georgia) 5-12, 2B, HR, 4 BB, 2 K vs. Florida (.451/.567/1.063, 19 2B, 35 HR, 50 BB, 39 K): Condon had himself a strong weekend against the Gators, who are just an average team and have under developed college arms. But he still looked as expected and will have a chance to make some more noise this week in the SEC tournament and seem locks to make the NCAA tourney as well.
https://x.com/JoeDoyleMiLB/status/1791953766318772623
OF/RHP Konnor Griffin (High School) .559/.690/.966, 13 2B, 4 3B, 9 HR, 47 BB, 10 K, 85 SB; 67.2 IP, 107 K, 26 BB, 0.72 ERA: Griffin ended his high school career with crazy stats and should solidify himself as the top prep hitter on the board somewhere in the top 10.
https://x.com/PrepBaseballMS/status/1791496854988824913
1B Nick Kurtz (Wake Forest): 1-8, HR, 5 BB, 3 K vs. NC State; (.312/.532/.790, 10 2B, 21 HR, 71 BB, 36 K): Kurtz just continues to rack up walks, almost bordering on passivity at times, but it seems unlikely NC State was going to pitch to him. Though you would have liked to have seen him play a little better here. Maybe a strong ACC tourney will change it, but his 1-1 odds are very slim at this point.
https://x.com/Wake_Analytics/status/1791266411710497180
OF Braden Montgomery (Texas A&M): 3-14, 2 HR, 0 BB, 6 K vs. Arkansas; (.325/.463/.769, 14 2B, 26 HR, 51 BB, 54 K): A tough weekend for Montgomery vs. a good Arkansas team, especially Hagen Smith. He did breakout of a little rut with those two homers but still not his best showing. Again, maybe the SEC tournament will be a great opportunity for him, but he also seems to be looking on the outside-in right now on that 1-1 pick unless the Guardians feel like he’s taking a big discount and they think he’s comparable to anyone else on this list at this point.
https://x.com/MLBPipeline/status/1791627241790562543
LHP Hagen Smith (Arkansas): 6 IP, 2 H, 14 K, 0 BB vs. Texas A&M; (77 IP, 150 K, 29 BB, 1.52 ERA): Texas A&M arguably has the deepest lineup in college baseball, save for maybe Georgia, but Smith overwhelmed all of them. He’s had more walks than Burns but he’s beaten some of the best lineups anyone will see in the NCAA and only risk of his control and injuries keeps him out of being in the top, top tier.
https://x.com/d1baseball/status/1791499086601830682
1B/OF James Tibbs (Florida State): 3-9, HR, 5 BB, 2 K vs. Georgia Tech; (.385/.500/.840, 17 2B, 24 HR, 42 BB, 32 K): We haven’t added anyone new to the list for most of the year, only eliminated guys like Seaver King and Vance Honeycutt. Tibbs has two times as many walk as strikeouts and has excellent power numbers. He might end up as a low-defense corner outfielder or first baseman, which comes with more risk. But he should hit and has enough production and data to merit at least being mentioned here if someone like Wethertholt still is.
https://x.com/FSUBaseball/status/1791615632229929365
SS/2B JJ Wetherholt (West Virginia): 3-10, 2 HR, 3 BB, 3 K vs. TCU; (.375/.519/.708, 8 2B, 8 HR, 28 BB, 14 K, 5 SB): Wetherholt found his power stroke in the final regular season series but was just OK overall. The BIG 12 tournament and potential NCAA tourney should give him the chance to really make waves in the draft conversation, even though it seems unlikely he’ll be in that final conversation at 1-1.
https://x.com/WVUBaseball/status/1791623496704905471
Justin’s ranking
Travis Bazzana
Charlie Condon
Hagen Smith
Braden Montgomery
Konnor Griffin
In next: Chase Burns, Nick Kurtz, Jac Caglianone, Bryce Rainer
Comment: I’ve moved Hagen Smith up on my board because I think he’s the third best player in the class among all these names. Cleveland hasn’t been linked to him, but that doesn’t mean they haven’t talked or won’t. The linked names are Bazzana, Condon, Caglianone and Griffin. But I expect to hear more names connected to them over the next month. I don’t know if it will be Smith or Montgomery , or even Burns. I dropped Kurtz out because I just don’t think Cleveland is going to go that route at this point, no matter the money and there are some concerns about passivity. I think the Griffin thing is more about posturing, due diligence and setting up their money, but we’ll see. Bazzana fits them and makes the most sense at 1-1, but Condon does too, maybe less traditionally.
Willie ranking
Travis Bazzana
Charlie Condon
Konnor Griffin
Braden Montgomery
Hagen Smith
Comment: Multiple reports have Cleveland linked to three players. That is Charlie Condon, Travis Bazzana, and Konnor Griffin. So, after several weeks we are nearly back where we started. The top two college bats and Mississippi prep shortstop Konnor Griffin. It's easiest to make a case for either of those two college bats at 1.1.
Condon offers a huge frame with potential for more strength. He makes contact at a high rate and limits self inflicted damage via strikeouts. There's massive 70-grade power and bat speed and a strong arm. That's an impressive profile for a 1.1 candidate any given year.
Bazzana is the profile Cleveland would select time and time again in previous situations. Contact skills, zone awareness, work ethic, IQ, polish. He's him if you don't believe he's stuck to 2nd base. He has power, speed, and an impressive track record of hitting at a high level everywhere.
Now enter Konnor Griffin into the fray. He's a middle/middle player with five tools and one of the most impressive hitting resumes you can ask for. Griffin has the goods too, if you're patient you could land an elite talent if it all comes together. One writer recently compared him to a Ronald Acuna type talent if he shifts to the outfield. Others have dropped comps of Bobby Witt Jr, Corey Seager, and Luis Robert among others. The point is, he could be a special talent, and it would be a risk. However, one that helps them achieve their goal to save money to spread across the draft.
Braden Montgomery has done nothing but raise his stock while showcasing 70-grade raw power from the left side and 60-grade power from the right. He has dropped pitching and focused solely on hitting and it paid off in a big way.
Hagen Smith has been a workhorse starter all season for the Hogs. He's paralleled Paul Skenes impressive performance of a year ago, but is coming off of one of his rougher starts this season. That said, he's pitched himself to the top of the class showcasing improved control and potential for three plus pitches.
The just missed section sees JJ Wetherholt slide backwards with Konnor Griffin's ascension back up the ranks. Wetherholt has done everything he can to get back into 1.1 conversations. He might be a deep sleeper at 1.1 right now. Burns was impressive once again after a few bouts with humanity his performance was well, near divine…or shall we say inspired!
Just missed: JJ Wetherholt, Nick Kurtz, Jac Caglianone, Chase Burns