2024 Cleveland Guardians Prospect Scouting Report: #43 LHP Jackson Humphries

Humphries had big stuff early in his senior year and showed flashes of it in 2023 after it dropped a bit late in his senior year

Jackon Humphries Bio

• Age (2024 season): 19

• Acquired: 2022 Draft (Round 15)

• 2023 Level: Rookie ACL/Low-A

• Height: 6’1

• Weight: 200

• Throws: Left

Jackson Humphries 2023 Stats

• G/GS: 15

• IP: 57.1

• ERA/FIP: 5.49/.504

• K/BB: 72/29

• K%/BB%: 28.2%/11.4%

• WHIP: 1.38 

Jackson Humphries 2024 Scouting Grades

• Fastball: 45

• Slider: 50

• Curveball: 55

• Changeup: 40

• Command: 40

• Overall: 40

• Risk: High

• ETA: 2027

Build & Background

A solidly built lefty, Humphries isn’t overly physical as a southpaw pitcher but has some length and lankiness to him. There’s some room for him to grow into some strength into his body and may add a bit to his 6’1 frame. Operating from the far third base side of the rubber, Humphries has a high leg kick and a long arm swing moving into a very high 3/4 delivery out of a slight back tilt. Humphries was young for his class (two weeks short of 18 on draft day) and was a rising arm early in the 2022 draft but fell off late. Cleveland bet that the early performance in his senior year was who Humphries had the potential to be as a pro, and more, with higher velo and great spin rates. He was a Campbell commit.

What Humphries Does Well

Thanks somewhat due to his limbs and delivery, Humphries appears to create good, tough angles on his pitchers, especially to left handed hitters. He’s reportedly been up to 96 in pro ball, though he was 89-93 (topped 94) when he got out to Lynchburg late in summer of ‘23. He was up to 95 in high school with good spin (2408), so that tracks. His two breaking pitches could profile as above average to plus in the future. Right now, I like his power curve a little more, with strong bite in the mid-70s and low-80s. He spun that to the tune of 2866 in high school and he was able to miss bats with it, and get called strikes for it when he was in Lynchburg last summer. His slider has two-plane break to it (2596 spin in high school). 

Where Humphries Needs to Improve

Control is still where Humphries will need to make the most growth, along with his changeup. I didn’t see him throw many changeups in his stint in Low-A in 2023, but the few I did lacked much fade and run, though he did get a swing and miss with one. It can be a bit too firm and lacks velocity separation from his fastball. There didn’t appear to be a pitch that Humphries commanded at an average rate when I saw him in Low-A, maybe minus his curve. His slider has some wide movement too it and can sweep in too far on right handers and too far away from lefties to chase at the next level. Reports suggested Humphries was 93-96 in Arizona before moving to Lynchburg, where he was more 89-92 and would hit 93 and 94. He needs to work on getting into that next velocity band more consistently and staying there. Humphries’ long arm swing and wind up can give concerns about his control projection with some of the moving parts in his limbs. I clocked him at about 1.4 seconds off the mound, which may give him issues controlling the run game with that long movement. A good time to home to pitchers is about 1.2, so he’s not far off, but that 0.2 seconds can be big for getting runners.

Key Stats

Humphries induced the highest ground ball rate of any pitcher in Cleveland’s system in 2023 (minimum 50 innings) at 50.4%. Cleveland doesn’t really mind fly ball pitchers, if anything they’ve moved more to prefer them it seems. Fly balls can be homers, but the majority of fly balls are harmless and have less BABIP variance than grounders. Still, grounders can’t be homers. Limiting walks, missing bats, and keeping the ball on the ground can be a path to success for pitchers. It’s a small sample and data from this level cannot be counted on to maintain, but it’s worth noting for Humphries.

Intangibles

Not much to go on about Humphries so far but even though reports suggested his stuff and control backed up late his senior year, if that was the case, he clearly was talented enough early on to impress Cleveland to believe in his arm talent. The Guardians do spend a very considerable amount of time getting to know their draft picks to see their level of commitment and character.

Future

There’s always a lot of IFs with any prospect, especially high school arms. Cleveland has had very little success in developing them into major league contributors. Triston McKenzie and Sam Hentges are their best current wins with high school arms and before that was probably CC Sabathia. But every player is unique. Humphries needs to consistently get into that next velocity band he’s shown and stay there, and work on his control, perhaps shortening his arm swing and overall delivery. The stuff, at the ceiling, profiles maybe as high as a mid-rotation arm, mabe even a #2. But all of this is high risk variance and he could never make the majors, and you could see the lack of a changeup at the moment make him more of a reliever with two plus breaking pitches.

Role

40 - High variance SP with mid-rotation upside, middle relief option, or misses completely