2024 Cleveland Guardians Prospect Post-Grad Evaluations

Checking in last year's graduated prospects in Cleveland...

1B Kyle Manzardo

Final ranking: #2 Overall (55 OVR - Risk: Moderate)

2024 Report: “55 - Hit over power first baseman that hits enough, walks enough and maximizes his power output enough to be an above average offensive contributor.”

2024 grades - Hit: 60 - Power: 50 - Speed: 40 - Defense: 40 - Arm: 40 - Overall: 55 - Risk: Moderate

What we learned: First half Kyle Manzardo was able to hit the ball in the air enough to prove he would get to his power, but his pull rate only being 30% suggested he was a bit off, and wasn’t going to get to it that way. As a result, he didn’t homer until his Sept. 1 callup. After Sept. 1, Manzardo’s fly ball rate was 51% (compared to 55% in the first half) but his pull rate made a leap to 48.9%, suggesting the kind of bat that could get to his power despite maybe having what some called average power. His .270/.333/.540 slash line in September represented the kind of player I thought he would be, and that was with a strikeout rate of 28% and just a 5% walk rate - both areas I expect to normalize for him in 2025.

Post graduate evaluation: Manzardo’s chase rate (27.7%) was in line with MLB averages (28.5%), as was his contact rate (73.4% - 76.8%). He manages to make zone contact at a rate consistent in the minors with his numbers. If he can tone down the chase a little, and swing a little less (38.9% in Triple-A to 46.7% in MLB), his walk rate should go up and strikeout rate go down. Manzardo improved against changeups in the majors (.296/.481) in a way I didn’t think he would. He crushes fastballs but struggles with breaking stuff. Lefties may pose an issue for him, so that’s where I still have questions. Cleveland really only seems to trust him as a DH. I think I would knock the hit tool, and speed down with platoon issues and seeing his sprint speeds.

Post graduate grades - Hit: 55 - Power: 50 - Speed: 30 - Defense: 40 - Arm: Overall 50 - Risk: Moderate

OF/1B Jhonkensy Noel

Final ranking: #22 Overall (40 OVR - Risk: High)

2024 report: “40 - Low-OBP, power hitting corner bat with high upside but a limited value floor.”

2024 grades: Hit: 30 - Power: 55 - Speed: 40 - Defense: 45 - Arm: 40 - Overall: 40 - Risk: High

What we learned: Noel was on fire out of the gate, hitting .254/.304/.587 with six homers and a 147 wRC+. On the surface, that’s obviously pretty good. Behind that was 71.7% (below the 76.8% league average) and a chase rate 47.8% (well above the 28.6% league average). So no shock that after the 147 mark from June-July, Noel hit just .198/.279/.431 from August 1-end of the season. The chase rate came down to 42% in that stretch, but still well above league average, while the contact rate dipped to 66%. For the year, Noel finished with a 68% contact rate, and a chase rate of 44%. The only two qualified players from 2024 with rates like that were Colorado’s Ezequiel Tovar (69% - 44.8%) and Boston’s Cedanne Rafeala (69.6% - 46.3%), both coming in under 100 wRC+ at 95 and 79, respectively. O’Neil Cruz had a 67.3% contact rate but just a 32% chase rate was as close as I could find for a qualified hitter with over 100 wRC+. Julio Rodriguez had a miserable start to the season and finished with a 116 and a contact rate of 71% and a chase rate of 36%. The last two are star level players and all four of these players I mentioned have speed and are plus defenders at their positions. So what we learned is that Noel can punish pitches in the zone, and has a in-zone contact rate in-line with league average (82.4% - compared to the 85.2% league average). But struggles with chase and contact when he does. He’s faster than I thought he would be (70th percentile sprint speed) but still a negative in the outfield (-2 OAA).

Post grad evaluation: The issues with chase and contact are about what I expected. There was talk about improved pitch selection, but I didn’t see that. Approaches are hard to change. Noel’s swing rate is about 7% above league average. It’s not so high that a big reduction would change his profile. And he has to hit the ball to have an impact. So he’s going to have to swing the bat. There’s just very little reason to throw Noel strikes. He’s proved he is a mistake hitting slugger with game changing power but didn’t have the plate discipline to force pitchers into the zone often enough. If he did, Noel could be a superstar on par with a Yordan Alvarez. The bat speed, raw power and ability to find the barrel are as high as this organization has had since Albert Belle or Jim Thome, or perhaps Travis Hafner. But staying in-zone is hard for Noel and without major improvements there, his outcomes are unlikely to change. He won’t draw walks or hit for enough average, and he’s not adding value defensively in the outfield outside of his arm, which was in the 76th percentile last year. He is faster than I assumed, so that’s about the only change I would make. I do believe Noel is a capable defender at first base and if Cleveland had him play there, the defensive grade is a little better, but he’s not getting any action there currently.

Post-graduate grades: Hit: 30 - Power: 55 - Speed: 45 - Defense: 40 - Arm: 55 - Overall: 40 - Risk: High

SS Brayan Rocchio

Final ranking: #5 Overall (50 OVR - Risk: Moderate)

2024 Report: “50 - High contact, good swing decision SS with strong defensive skills.”

2024 grades: Hit: 50 - Power: 40 - Speed: 55 - Defense: 55 - Arm: 50 - Overall: 50 - Risk: Moderate

What we learned: No surprise that Rocchio graded out at 5 OAA (outs above average) in the 89th percentile and could draw a walk (10% - 73rd percentile). A poor launch angle (9.4

degrees) led to a groundball rate of 47.7%. Combined with a slower sprint speed and well below average exit velos, it’s easy to see why Rocchio carried a .245 BABIP. In the minors, he had stints where he carried some shockingly low BABIPs, buy also some higher ones. Batted ball quality was not a strength for Rocchio in 2024 despite a league average contact rate. You’d like to see someone without great contact quality maybe have a better contact rate, because more balls in play might lead to some more BABIP luck just by sheer volume. Despite his strong walk rate, Rocchio only have roughly league average chase rates and ended up in the 40th percentile there, making it feel more like passivity than pitch selection. His sprint speed being in the 35th percentile was a surprise given his success on the bases in the minors.

Post grad evaluation: Contact quality and swing decisions have to drive hit tool grades for me. Contact for the sake of contact isn’t enough. I thought Rocchio would make enough contact and draw enough walks to be a league average bat in terms of batting average and OBP, while certainly offering below average power. But poor batted ball quality plagued him in the minors, too. In addition to maybe being lower on the hit tool now, the sprint speed was concerning in 2024. No real changes to the glove other than consistency, but that was always an issue for him in the minors. Still an above average glove with the notable hiccups, which seemed to come at very inopportune times in 2024. He’ll need to add strength to impact the ball more and hopefully that could aid him on the bases as well. It’s also important to note that development continues at the big league level too and Rocchio could make improvements in year two, so these grades are specific to 2024.

Post-graduation grades; Hit: 45 - Power: 30 - Speed: 45 - Defense: 55 - Arm: 50 - Overall: 45 - Risk: Moderate

RHP Cade Smith

Final ranking: #34 Overall (40 OVR - Risk: Moderate)

2024 Report: “40 - Middle relief, possible setup man future”

2024 grades: Fastball: 55 - Sweeper: 45 - Split: 50 - Control: 40 - Overall: 40 - Risk: Moderate

What we learned: Cade Smith went from barely making the opening day roster to being one of the best relievers in baseball. The most surprising thing was that Smith was able to halve his walk rate from Triple-A in 2023 (10.4% down to 5.9%), which was surprising because he’d never had a walk rate below 10% in the minors for any extended stretch. It’s unusual to see such a drastic cut there getting to the majors, but development does continue at the major leagues. The extension in his delivery (7.4) really helped his fastball play even better at its velo (95-98). His splitter, which was newer in 2023, became his second best pitch, while his sweeper continued to be his third best pitch. Smith didn’t get many chases out of the zone (35th percentile) but he didn’t need them,throwing first pitch strikes at a league average rate (63%) for the first time in his career (49.6% in Triple-A in 2023). Hitters made contact against Smith in the zone at 8% below league average, which also helps when you’re not getting chases.

Post-grad evaluation: The extension on the delivery took what was already an above average heater velo wise to a plus pitch, maybe even double play. 95-98 at 7.4 of extension can make pitches feel like 99-100. The real jump was his confidence in his splitter and the command of his fastball overall. He did throw his fastball almost 70% of the time, so you’d like to see him have more usage of the splitter to keep hitters off the fastball, but with his velo, extension and command, it’s understandable why. The sweeper could use some work as well - below average in horizontal break. But the control and fastball grade clearly took major steps forward here.

Post-graduation grades: Fastball: 60 - Sweeper: 45 - Split: 50 - Control: 50 - Overall: 50 - Risk: Moderate

INF/OF Daniel Schneemann

Final ranking: None

2024 Report: N/A

2024 grades: N/A

What we learned: Schneeman had a strong 2023 in Triple-A, contributing in the power and speed department and showing his versatility. That got him on the radar in spring training in 2024 with an invite to camp despite not being on the 40 man roster at the time. He got off to a strong start in Triple-A in 2024 and eventually got the call and stayed up all year. He got off to a strong start seeing time all over the field. The reputation that Schneemann came with was utility, improving exit velocities and some ability to draw a walk. He had an .805 OPS before the All-Star break and and .555 after the All-Star break. But his role as a utility largely held up, adding defensive value in the outfield, and third base, while below average defensively at short.

Post grad evaluation: No shock that defensively, Schneemann saw action all over the field and appeared to be best in right and third, while being average at second and below average at shortstop. He had reverse splits against LHP (.992 OPS, .609 vs RHP) but was better against RHP in the minors, so I expect that to be fluky. Schneeman did work to improve his bat speed and hit the ball harder. Generally, he doesn’t chase out of the zone but makes below league average contact. He seems like a 26th man who can play different positions and offer some pop, a walk and speed, which is valuable in that role.

Post-graduation grades; Hit: 40 - Power: 40 - Speed: 50 - Defense: 50 - Arm: 55 - Overall: 40 - Risk: Moderate

2B/OF Angel Martinez

Final ranking: #5 Overall (45 OVR - Risk: Moderate)

2024 Report: “45 - High contact switch hitter with a more utility profile that could be a fringe-average regular if he can handle second or center defensively”

2024 grades: Hit: 45 - Power: 40 - Speed: 55 - Defense: 50 - Arm: 50 - Overall: 45 - Risk: Moderate

What we learned: Martinez got some run in center when the Guardians needed a spark and he gave them some. He proved to be mostly playable in center and left, though maybe not an extended look. His strong contact rates continued and he showed the ability to take a walk. As he got more exposure, his chase rate expanded more. We really saw some strong fly ball numbers (40.7%) and pull rates (41.3%) that could be encouraging for his batted ball profile going forward. Perhaps we will see some better power for Angel despite lower average EVs. He might need some more time in Triple-A (less than 100 PAs) and the majors to adjust his approach, which isn’t as bad as Noel’s to maximize his profile.

Post grad evaluation: The batted ball data is somewhat encouraging that I think we could see maybe fringe-average power. His sprint speeds didn’t paint a picture of a great runner on the base, but those can sometimes be a little misleading. Defensively, it would appear second base is going to be his best home on the diamond, but more time in the outfield could get him to average there and he’s not unplayable. That might stick him more as a tweener/utility guy, but at 23, and few Triple-A reps, I think there’s still some growth to be had here where I’m not out on him as a starter.

Post-graduation grades; Hit: 45 - Power: 45 - Speed: 55 - Defense: 50 - Arm: 50 - Overall: 45 - Risk: Moderate