2024 Cleveland Guardians Comeback Prospect of the Year

This category of ‘award’ (I really need more creative names for these ‘awards’ on both a larger and individual level) is usually a prospect that once had more of a ‘standing’ in the system. But it also could be a prospect that may not ever ever had much visibility in the system, at least on my radar or the prospect/Guardians prospect community.

So this is another subjective award (which these all are) looking at some performances in the Guardians system in 2024 that were a step up from where a prospect was in the past. My only rule in these ‘awards’ are that the player has to have more minor league playing time during the year than they did in the majors, if they were called up.

INF/OF Angel Martinez:

2023 line: .251/.321/.394, 20 K%/8 BB%, 92 wRC+

2024 line: .274/.356/.456, 16.1 K%/10 BB%, 111 wRC+

Martinez had some prospect standing when Cleveland signed him for $500,000 in its 2018 international singing class, somewhat due to being fundamentally sound and being the son of one time Cleveland player, Sandy Martinez. He got himself onto the radar quickly in 2022 with 13 homers and 12 steals while playing all over the infield across two levels (High-A/Double-A) with a 17.5 K%, 12 BB%, line of .278/.378/.471 and a 135 wRC+. 

In 2023 though, Martinez’s swing led to some batted ball issues, struggling to pull the ball and getting to Triple-A and hitting more ground balls. Not that Martinez is a power hitter, but the batted ball issues led to lower averages for someone with a higher contact profile. Martinez made some adjustments to open up in his stance in 2024 and got back on track. He had a great spring training, learning to play the outfield as much as the infield. A hamate issue looked like it was going to keep him out for an extended period of time, but he returned to have a solid season and even wound up in the majors with Cleveland mostly playing center field. Martinez’s long term outlook still looks to be that of a backup in the majors, and his chase rate there showed some areas in his game where he struggles (chase) that will need to be resolved if he wants to be a more stable offensive player. On the defensive side, outfield and second base seem to be his primary top positions as Cleveland really didn’t trust him at any infield spot when he was called up. But still, the floor here is back up.

LHP Doug Nikhazy:

2023: 102 IP, 26 K%, 15.4  BB%, 4.94 ERA/4.69 FIP

2024: 123.2 IP, 25.4 K%, 10.8 BB%, 2.91 ERA/4.13 FIP

When Cleveland drafted Nikhazy in 2021, I was pretty high on the match between Nikhazy and the Guardians pitching factory. Perhaps there wasn’t as much juice left to squeeze from then to now, as his control really became a problem upon getting into the pros. This year, Cleveland finally got Nikhazy to change his arm slot from a more traditional wide 3/4 angle than his high, over the top delivery. Along with that, his pitch mix had to change. He emphasized his slider and cutter more, as well as his change, and had to reduce reliance on his signature curve. His velocity was still 89-92 and would hit 94, so that piece hasn’t return to his college numbers, but his walk rate dropped without reducing strikeouts. His performance at least has him back on the cusp of a 40 man spot heading into the Rule 5 deadline later this month.

1B/OF Jhonkensy Noel: 

2023: .220/.303/.420, 27 HR, 24.8 K%/8.4 BB%, 77 wRC+

2024: .295/.359/.578, 18 HR, 21.1 K%/6.7 BB%, 139 wRC+ (284 PA at Triple-A)

Noel didn’t have any issues with power counting stats in 2023, but a .240 BABIP really dragged him down across the board in other areas. A 43.5% groundball rate had something to do with that as well as his ongoing issues with chase rate. A 42% chase rate in 2023 only came down to 40% in 2024, but he was able to recover some of his fly ball tendencies. Going from where he was in 2023 to what he did in 2024 makes him an obvious kind of fit for this category. However, it’s hard to see him reaching a consistent output in the majors unless he can get his chase rate down to a manageable figure. Otherwise he has the ceiling of a Chris Carter type long term, which can be good in some years but doesn’t carry a lot of long term value. He did show better progress in the outfield. While he still is unreliable in his range, he has some athleticism to make plays on the balls he can get to and obviously has a huge arm.

2024 Cleveland Guardians Comeback Prospect of the Year

1B/OF Jhonkensy Noel

As much as I struggle to see Noel’s profile ever reaching that of a regular impact player despite the game changing power, it was not a strong year for this group. 2022 had Bo Naylor and last year had Ryan Webb, who also had a chance to make the 40 man roster in a few weeks. Noel is already on the 40 man roster and had some impact moments at the big league level.

Despite his chase rate cutting into his ability to consistently impact the lineup in a way he should be able to or the Guardians need him to, he still has the chance to change the game more than Martinez does, who looks like more like a super utility guy at the best, but one the Guardians don’t trust at short. Nikhazy’s walk rate is still concerning and looks like a fifth starter/reliever. A relief option for him might chance this pick if he ends up seeing a velocity increase and relying on a shorter variety of secondaries (and leveraging his emotions a little in a shorter role). But until any of that happens, Noel’s well-timed resurgence (as he was on his final option year in 2024) is a pick of a light grouping in 2024.